2024 Fire Year Outlook
The state of California experienced a hotter than normal June, combined with an excess of fine fuels from unusually wet winter and spring seasons. This has resulted in the vegetation being more susceptible to ignition and fire spread than has been observed in previous years. In addition, the vegetation is much more dense below 3,000 feet, which can result in rapid fire growth during initial attack, especially in areas where wind and topography align. These observations and predictions match the fire behavior that has been observed during the first half of the fire year. These conditions are widely considered to be indicative of a longer and more intense fire year, especially when compared to the last 3 fire years.
July – September months are expected to be more influenced by grass and fine fuels rather than large timber, which are less prone to ignition due to the wet spring season. However, the propagation of fire through the understory and ladder fuels of timber, based on incident activity in the first half of the fire year, indicates that vigorous and rapid fire spread is likely, even in the timber fuel model. While the number of fires in the state is keeping pace with the five-year average, the number of acres burned is much higher than the five-year average. Climate predictions are indicating above normal temperatures for all of California, resulting in an abnormally high fire risk for the remainder of the year.
