2025 Fire Season Outlook
Across both Northern and Southern California, spring 2025 was warmer and drier than normal. In Southern California, precipitation since October was about 70% of average, with consistently above-average temperatures in May. Northern California experienced below-normal rainfall, a notable heat wave at the end of May, and about 2,400 lightning strikes—well below the 10-year average. Snowpack in the north Sierra declined rapidly, from 75–80% of normal on May 1 to 20–30% by month’s end. In both regions, dead fuel moisture was low, and live fuels at lower elevations cured quickly. Coastal marine layers are showing signs of weakening, especially in Southern California, which may contribute to increased fire risk in coastal zones.
Wildfire activity is already trending above normal in both regions. Northern California saw a sharp rise in daily fires during May, with notable grassland incidents like the Midway and Catlett fires. In Southern California, high grass fuel loads and drying conditions have raised the risk for large fires across fuel types, including timber and coastal grasses. Areas above 7,000 feet in the Sierra and Mono County have already experienced early-season timber fires, underscoring the vulnerability of high-elevation forests.
Live fuels at higher elevations remained moist in early June, potentially slowing early fire spread, but both regions anticipate increasing fire potential as the season progresses and fuels continue to dry. Dry wind events, lightning, and potential heat waves are expected to be the primary triggers for large wildfires statewide.
Fire potential across California is expected to increase steadily through summer, with both North and South Operations forecasting above-normal large fire activity by July and August. In Southern California, the threat is driven by persistent drought, high grass loads, and weakening coastal moisture. In Northern California, a developing flash drought and early-season dryness are pushing conditions toward critical levels faster than usual. High-elevation forests and lowland grasslands in both regions are of particular concern. Compared to last year, there is a greater likelihood of significant timber fires, especially in the southern Sierra and inland zones. Models are aligning for an early and active season, with elevated risk continuing into September.