The CAL FIRE Report
2023 Fire Year Outlook
Unpredictable weather patterns will dominate the next four months due to various oceanic-atmospheric interactions affecting the Jet Stream, leading to uncertainties in monthly forecasts. October is anticipated to be warmer and drier than usual, accompanied by a typical frequency of gusty-dry wind events. Although periodic moisture events are predicted for the subsequent months, one month may be exceptionally dry, featuring stronger northerly-offshore winds. In Northern CA, fuel conditions indicate that while some vegetation experienced above-average moisture in September, other areas are becoming increasingly flammable, especially as the season progresses. Meanwhile, Southern CA expects an average to below-average fire season, influenced by the onset of El Niño bringing cooler, wetter conditions. However, existing drought conditions in specific areas may not be fully alleviated by the expected rainfall, and there remains some uncertainty about the exact timing of these wetter and cooler patterns.